Mesoscale Discussion 2135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...southern New Mexico into Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282009Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some with hail, will persist over parts
of southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. A few severe storms
affecting the El Paso area cannot be ruled out mainly after 00Z.

DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass beneath cool midlevels with
the upper trough has lead to scattered midday cells, some possibly
producing hail to near 1.00" diameter. Deep-layer shear is generally
at or below 30 kt, but the favorable/early time of day with several
hours of heating suggests additional storms will redevelop.

While the El Paso area is currently west of the existing batch of
cells, satellite and radar imagery show new development over the
northern Sierra Madre in northern Mexico. In addition, cells are
developing over the higher terrain over southwest NM.

Given such strong heating over southwest NM into northern Mexico, it
is possible these cells survive as they travel northeastward across
the lower terrain. Shear is not particularly strong, but at least
some semblance of cells or perhaps propagating/outflow induced
convection may push into south-central NM and the El Paso vicinity
near or after 00Z. Gusty winds and marginal hail would be possible.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 09/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30250481 29790662 30330730 30540821 31300874 32190813
            32710793 33170785 33340741 33360670 33130594 32810551
            32280509 31430468 30250481 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are
expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

...NM/Far West TX...
Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing
northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current
position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four
Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow
will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system,
spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains.
Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central
NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated
beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is
anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with
the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy
should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within
the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward
to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary
severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as
well.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 09/28/2025