Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm chances are evident today over parts of central
California. Severe weather is not forecast.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the prior outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible beneath an upper low over central CA and near the
New England Coast. However, limited moisture and very weak buoyancy
should keep severe potential very low. See the prior outlook for
more information.

..Lyons.. 11/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025/

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will gradually move eastward over the
Pacific Coast region today. An embedded deep-layer cyclone is
forecast to gradually weaken as it moves east-southeastward off of
the northern CA coast. The low/midlevel moisture plume associated
with this system will continue to overspread parts of CA through the
period. Weak buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg) within this moist
plume will support isolated/sporadic lightning potential with
embedded convective elements, especially where orographic lift is
maximized in the vicinity of the Sierra Nevada. While low-level
flow/shear will remain rather strong into this afternoon, negligible
surface-based instability should limit potential for convectively
augmented gusts. 

Elsewhere, cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
over parts of the Northeast, though the greatest relative lightning
potential is expected to remain offshore of southern New England.
Some elevated buoyancy may develop late tonight across parts of
MO/IL, along the northern periphery of modest 850 mb moisture
return, but there is minimal signal for development of deep
convection in this region prior to the end of the period.