Mesoscale Discussion 2328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Areas affected...Western OK into northwest/west-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262151Z - 270045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe gusts and hail are possible into
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storm development is underway from
western OK into northwest TX, within a warm, moderately unstable,
and weakly capped environment. Additional storm development will be
possible within this corridor into early evening, in the vicinity of
a surface trough. Deep-layer shear is generally weak to modest,
which should tend to limit storm organization. However, seasonably
deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat
for strong to localized severe gusts in the vicinity of the
strongest storms into this evening. Also, while midlevel lapse rates
are generally rather weak, isolated hail cannot be ruled out with
the strongest storms.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/26/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   32480222 35010005 36869878 36889852 36899800 36509763
            34219784 32969847 32089981 31840070 31920131 32120195
            32480222 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.

...20z Update...
The forecast remains generally on track, with only a slight
southward expansion of the 5% wind probability area made with this
update based on latest environmental/observational trends. As of
1945 UTC, a deepening cumulus field was noted on visible satellite
imagery from West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma, with isolated
thunderstorm development ongoing across the higher terrain of
southwest Texas. Temperatures have generally warmed into the
upper-80s to mid-90s F across much of the region, with T-Td spreads
approaching 30 F in some parts of northwest Texas. Coupled with
steep low-level lapse rates, this may support isolated potential for
strong/damaging outflow wind gusts. with an instance of large hail
also possible (primarily farther north where deep-layer shear is
forecast to be marginally stronger). A lack of stronger
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, generally weak/modest low- to
mid-tropospheric flow, and poor mid-level lapse rates are expected
to limit overall convective intensity and severe coverage, however.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 09/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally
eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by
tonight.  Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this
morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is
expected this afternoon.  Surface heating west of the clouds and
within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support
additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across
western OK into northwest TX.  Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V
profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the
primary hazard late this afternoon/evening.  Vertical shear will be
on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.

Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA.  Other isolated
lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the
southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a
low-level warm advection regime.