Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are expected from
Kansas into western Texas, with isolated overnight activity into
parts of the lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly move across the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic today, with a surface high moving into the eastern CONUS
with offshore flow across the East Coast. Behind this system,
shortwave ridging aloft will move toward the MS Valley during the
day as a progressive shortwave trough affects the central and
northern Plains. This wave will bring rapid cooling aloft across the
Dakotas and into the upper MS Valley during the day, with subtle
height falls extending into the Central Plains. 

While the primary surface low will be over Canada, a secondary low
is expected to form over western KS by late afternoon, with the
surface trough extending fully from the TX Panhandle northward into
Manitoba. Southerly winds across the Plains will aid the development
of a narrow moist axis from eastern TX into eastern KS and NE during
the day, with elevated moisture/warmth developing toward the mid MS
Valley overnight with a 40-50 kt low-level jet.

...KS...
An isolated supercell or two may develop during the late afternoon
just downstream of the low-level lapse rate plume and near the
narrow axis of 60s dewpoints near I-35. Surface convergence will not
be particularly strong, but forecast soundings indicate a narrow
zone of uncapped and unstable air mass. Steep lapse rates aloft,
veering winds with height, and 500 mb winds around 30 kt will
conditionally favor slow-moving supercells producing large hail. If
moisture quality verifies near the upper end of the guidance, hail
over 2.00" diameter may occur.

...Southern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to deep inverted-v profiles across western
TX including the Panhandles. Relatively cool temperature aloft as
well as convergence within the surface trough will favor scattered
high based thunderstorms, with threat of dry microbursts over a
relatively large zone from the South Plains into southwest KS.

...Lower MS/Mid MS Valleys...
During the evening and overnight, lift associated with a 50+ kt
southwesterly low-level jet will bring elevated instability eastward
out of KS and into MO, southern IA an western IL as minimal height
falls occur. Forecast soundings indicate substantial elevated MUCAPE
with steep mid/upper lapse rates, thought shear in the cloud-bearing
layer will be marginal. This should support elevated storms over
much of northern MO, southern IA and western IL overnight with
activity spreading southeast. Isolated strong gusts cannot be ruled
out given the generally dry sub-cloud layer as storms amass.

..Jewell.. 05/14/2026