DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 01/27 05:37
Cattle Strength May Be Short-Lived
Wednesday was the day for cattle futures to shine -- not hog futures. Much
of the trade in both markets seemed to be technically driven. Cattle needed to
bounce and hogs needed to take a breather. Support was not received from cash
in either market.
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Lower. Futures: Mixed. Live Equiv: $216.19 -$2.35*
Hogs: Steady. Futures: Mixed. Lean Equiv: $101.74 +$2.14**
*Based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live
cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
Live cattle uncovered sufficient buying interest to close the chart gap in
some futures contracts but not in all. Feeder cattle showed similar technical
buying with nearby contracts unable to close the gaps while later contracts
did. Much of what took place Wednesday was technical in nature and not
fundamental. After cash business taking place at steady money on Tuesday, some
trading took place $1.00 lower Wednesday. We cannot expect anything much
different to develop the rest of the week. Not only did cash not support the
rally, but boxed beef declined. Choice was down $2.92 with select down $3.60.
This does make one feel warm and fuzzy for the rest of the week. Futures may
follow through Thursday but likely only to close the chart gaps that remain.
Pressure could then resume unless there is support from weekly exports.
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